Diamondbacks Shake Up Rotation Order for Brewers Series

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers for a three-game series this weekend at Chase Field. The D-backs are 82-64 and are coming off a two-game sweep of the Texas Rangers this week. They hold a slim half-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the top NL Wild Card position.

The Brewers are 83-62 and hold an 8.5-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central with 17 games remaining. However, they are coming off a 13-2 loss at the hands of the Giants and have stumbled a bit in September, going 3-6 this month.

Taking advantage of two days off this week, the Diamondbacks decided to make some changes to their rotation order ahead of a stretch of 13 games in 13 days.

Had they stayed in the starting order, the starters this weekend would have been Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryne Nelson. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly would then start the first two games of Colorado’s road series against the Rockies next week.

But after hinting at changes for several days, the D-backs announced their starting pitchers for the weekend series against the Brewers. Here are the most up-to-date pitching matchups.

Friday, September 13

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (2-2, 5.83) vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (10-8, 3.81)

Rodriguez slides ahead of Brandon Pfaadt. He last pitched on September 7 and will have five days off. The Brewers don’t hit left-handed starters as well as right-handed starters, according to Baseball-Reference. Milwaukee is hitting just .230 with a .682 OPS against starters.

On the surface, Freddy Peralta appears to have an average season going for him, as his 3.81 ERA matches his career 3.82 ERA exactly. His walks are up slightly and his strikeouts are down a bit, leading to a reduction in his K/BB ratio. That number has been 3.58 over the past three seasons, but has dropped to 2.98 this year. Thus, his FIP rose to 4.29.

Saturday, September 14

RHP Brandon Pfaadt (9-8, 4.42) vs. RHP Tobias Myers (7-5, 2.93)

Pfaadt’s last outing was Sept. 6 against the Astros, and he will pitch on seven days’ rest. He leads the team in innings pitched this year with 165. Last year, Pfaadt threw 178.2 total innings, including 60 in Triple-A, 96.2 in MLB and 22 more in the Postseason.

Pfaadt has struggled in his last five starts, giving up four runs or more in four of those games. His ERA during this span is 6.91. Pfaadt’s K/BB ratio is still an excellent 36/7, but he has given up a whopping 41 hits in 27.1 innings, including four homers. Location errors within the area affected it.

Tobias Myers is a 26-year-old rookie who was drafted out of high school in 2016 by the Orioles. He was shuffled around with the Rays, Guardians and Giants over a seven-year minor league career before finally signing as a free agent with the Brewers.

Milwaukee turned straw into gold with Myers. Called up to finally make his major league debut on April 23rd of this year, he has been stuck in the rotation ever since, posting a sub-three ERA along the way. The 4.10 FIP and 4.22 Statcast xERA indicate, however, that a regression to the mean may be in order.

Sunday, September 15

RHP Zac Gallen (12-6, 3.55) vs. LHP DL Hall (1-1, 4.01)

Gallen pitched Tuesday against the Rangers and was moved up to Sunday to sit on four days’ rest. He has made two excellent starts in a row after a tough August. The D-backs’ ace threw six no-hit, no-hit innings against the Giants on Sept. 4. He followed that up with five scoreless innings against the Rangers on September 10, allowing just two hits.

However, Gallen has walked six batters over those two outings and has struggled with control at times this year. He has a 3.3 BB/9 ratio, compared to just 2.1 over the past two seasons. This directly led to a sharp reduction in his innings pitched. Gallen averaged 6.06 IP/G in 2022-23, but has dropped to 5.28 this year.

DL Hall was part of Corbin Burnes’ comeback along with Joey Ortiz last February. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, but was called up a few times. It is the seventh start of the year.

Hall threw seven scoreless innings against the Reds on Aug. 30 and has gone two scoreless outings since then. He was scoreless over his last 12.2 innings.

The D-backs bullpen has been up and down all year. Paul Sewald has lost the closer’s job, and Justin Martinez has gotten every save opportunity since early August. He converted all eight, but struggled in tied games.

Torey Lovullo said if faced with a ninth-inning situation where two of the first three scheduled hitters were left-handed, he would go to AJ Puk. But that situation did not arise. Puk has been fantastic since coming over from the Marlins at the deadline. He gave up just one run in 19 innings, giving up nine hits while striking out 31 batters.

The Brewers’ 3.15 ERA is second lowest in MLB. That’s despite a 3.93 FIP, which ranks 15th. That’s due to his 78.6% LOB rate, or strikeout rate. Devin Williams returned from injury in late July to take over the closer role from Trevor McGill. He was outstanding as usual, posting a 1.72 ERA with 10 saves and just one hit.

During William’s absence, McGill saved 20 games and threw just two. He has an ERA of 2.97.

Despite just a 103 team OPS+, which is barely above average, the Brewers have averaged 4.8 runs per game, which is sixth best in MLB. With Christian Yelich out with a back injury, they are led by rookie Jackson Chourio, who is hitting .272 with 19 homers, 70 RBIs and a .787 OPS.

The Diamondbacks lead all of MLB in runs scored with 802. The next highest total comes from the New York Yankees, who have 734. It’s a balanced offense with every starter having at least 100 OPS+ or better.