Complete NFL predictions, picks for the entire Week 4 roster

The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season.

SUNDAY

PANTHERS (+4.5) over Bengals: Andy Dalton breathed new life into a Panthers team that simply lost faith in Bryce Young. Dalton was among the best running backs in the NFL last week and faces a woeful defense in the Bengals, Dalton’s former team. There could be another shootout on Sunday. Bengals win with a late field goal.

JETS (-7.5) over Broncos: I expect some big-number home favorites to actually cover this week, starting with the Jets. Aaron Rodgers hummed last week against the Patriots and has 10 long days of rest with no travel and Denver flying across the country. Great spot for the Jets to pick a rookie QB down the road.

Steelers (-2.5) over COLTS: Will Anthony Richardson even survive this game? The Steelers hit incredibly hard. Simply put, Richardson can’t throw the ball much and takes far too many big hits to be a viable quarterback. The Colts are 16th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), compared to sixth for the Steelers, who are also fourth in total defensive DVOA.

Vikings (+3) over PACKERS: Jordan Love is expected to return for the Packers this weekend, but Brian Flores’ defense is ferocious. Love might be a little rusty, maybe not healthy, and this is a bad matchup against Minnesota. We’re looking to bet on the road dogs in this division’s rivalry.

TEXANS (-6.5) over Jaguars: The Jaguars are usually so bad that this would be a point of overreaction to bet on Jacksonville. But the Texans also lost last week and were also disappointing. Houston has the seventh-best defense in the NFL, according to DVOA. This is a forgettable spot for Houston, and there’s no reason to believe in Jacksonville — still on the road and in a short week.

Falcons (-2.5) over Saints: The Saints are extremely beatable, and barring a few bad coaching decisions, unlucky ref calls, the Falcons would have beaten the Chiefs. The Saints’ offensive line grade on Pro Football Focus dropped from tops in the NFL to 30th in the league. Alvin Kamara is questionable, adding to the uncertainty for The Big Easy team.

Aries (+3) over BEARS: Coach’s edge of the week, even with injuries: Sean McVay with Matt Eberflus. And then there’s Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams. Chicago’s defense could give Stafford fits, but Williams is ill-suited for that role. McVay projects the Rams against an overrated Bears defense and an offense ranked 32nd in DVOA. damn

BUCCANNEERS (+1.5) over Eagles: Overreacting to a terrible performance as a heavy favorite. The Buccaneers are a big underdog, but a bad favorite. As the favorite, Tampa Bay recently went 8-10 as the favorite after last week’s upset loss to Denver. Since last season, the Bucs are among the best in the league on the money line as an underdog, 7-7.

CARDINALS (-3.5) over Commanders: Is Jayden Daniels already that good? Or is Cincinnati’s defense that bad? Anyway, we’re looking at a firefight here. The Commanders defense is the worst in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus and DVOA. It’s hard to stomach that level of bad when the Cardinals gave the seemingly unstoppable Bills all they could handle in Week 1.

Patriots (+10.5) over 49ERS: Ten days of prep for the 49ers is a gift for the Patriots, 10.5 is a crazy number here. Jacoby Brissett is a solid enough starter to cover the spread, with a strong defense and running game that should keep San Francisco’s offense at bay.

Brown (-1.5) over RAIDERS: We make business decisions here. Don’t bet Antonio Pierce on anything less than a field goal. Cleveland isn’t great, we pretty much wiped them out last weekend, but don’t think for a second that the Browns are losing this game. These two teams are ranked 30th and 31st in DVOA. Don’t watch this game but earn some money on it.

CHARGERS (+7) over Chiefs: Jim Harbaugh never really needs a star quarterback, but if you give him one, he’ll win a Super Bowl. This line implies that Justin Herbert (doubtful) will not play. That’s fine with us, they’ll ride JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards with the league’s fourth-ranked defense (PFF) to keep it within reach.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Bills: This is one of the best “Sunday Night Football” games we’ve seen in years. I’m leaning Baltimore as the team that is more desperate, and Buffalo is really high after destroying Jacksonville. The Bills traveling on a short week is also out of the handicap, but make no mistake, these are two top teams in the NFL. Buffalo is 1st in DVOA and Baltimore is 5th.

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MONDAY

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Titans: Will Levis or Tyler Huntley? Huntley starts this weekend and adds a nice running element to an offense that has been an embarrassment under Skylar Thompson. They need to win one game at a time, but Will Levis may have to wait a week to get a win as they are the 32nd ranked team according to PFF.

Seahawks (+3.5) over LIONS: Detroit didn’t look as dominant as we expected given their talent. It should be an aerial affair on Monday. Those are two top run defenses, according to PFF, and the Lions allowed just 3.6 yards per carry. Detroit is unreliable and Goff is currently the 24th best quarterback in the NFL according to PFF while Geno Smith is ranked 6th. It’s a shot I expect Seattle to take win by a field goal.

LAST WEEK: 7-8.

SEASON: 19-25.

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Why Trust New York Post Bets

Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season, he presented massive returns to The Post on the player market the past two seasons. Although he consistently bets long shots, the return on investment is 30.15% from 2022.