Ohio State vs. Oregon, more picks against the spread

On By Yukito

The conference realignment stole so much from college sports – rivalry, tradition, etc. – but there were benefits.

This led to Texas’ first visit to the Big House, Tennessee’s trip to Oklahoma, Michigan and USC’s first game outside the Rose Bowl in 65 years.

Next week, No. 1 Texas and No. 5 Georgia will battle for control of the SEC. This week, No. 2 Ohio and No. 3 Oregon will battle it out for the Big Ten.

The Buckeyes performed as well as advertised, posting the highest scoring average in the country (39.2) while also having the second-best scoring offense and top-ranked defense.

The Ducks are passing the eye test sporadically, largely trying to live up to expectations in a season that has been a near miss for Boise State and Idaho.

Oregon will have a difficult task trying to stop Jeremiah Smith. Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon can’t settle for talent against a rare team that has even more. You can’t trust the decision-making of Dillon Gabriel – a sixth-year quarterback who continues to make freshman-like mistakes that result in Oregon ranking 90th in red zone offense – despite the pressure of rushing the best passing game in the country. It can’t count on a defense that has been burned by the only elite offense (Boise State) it has faced this season and that has given up nearly 40 points per game in three games against national title contenders under Dan Lanning.

Since Ryan Day took over in 2019, Ohio State has lost just once before the regular-season finale. This took place in 2021 against Oregon.

Ohio State (-3.5) will give back to a team that shouldn’t be in the Big Ten.

ARIZONA STATE (+6.5) over Utah

It will be another game-time decision for Cam Rising, whose coach said there is “a chance” the quarterback could return. There is also a chance that Lloyd Christmas will fill his briefcase full of IOUs.

RUTGERS (-2.5) over Wisconsin

The Scarlet Knights made numerous game-changing errors at Nebraska. Jersey’s breaks will go their own way as they search for the line against a Wisconsin defense that ranks 75th against the run.

South Carolina (+21.5) over ALABAMA

Nick Saban could take the defense with him. The Crimson Tide scored 67 points in the last 51 minutes of play.

Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) throws the ball against the Florida State Seminoles in the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Clemson (-20.5) over WAKE FOREST

After Clemson’s consecutive one-point wins in this series, a tie is expected. Wake’s 126th-ranked defense will be embarrassed by an offense that is averaging 48.5 points against non-Georgia opponents.

Washington (+2.5) over IOWA

The seven-point Hawkeyes will revisit the Brian Ferentz era in another matchup against a top-10 defense. Washington’s Will Rogers will have no trouble moving the chains against a defense that ranks 109th in opponents’ completion percentage.

Oklahoma (+14.5) over Texas

That’s too many points to lose – even with Quinn Ewers returning as the leader of the top-ranked team in the country – in a competition that has been decided by one point in nine of the last 11 years.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) leaves the field after a 35-13 victory over Mississippi State at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Saturday, September 28, 2024. Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

USC (+5.5) over Penn State

James Franklin did not earn our trust. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 for the sixth time since 2017. Only once did they manage to survive until November undefeated, each time suffering their first away defeat of the season. History could repeat itself against their toughest opponent yet after traveling 2,575 miles for their first away game in six weeks.

NOTRE DAME (-23.5) over Stanford

The Irish had two weeks to prepare for the team that ranks 125th in the country in terms of yards per game. Notre Dame’s last four wins against Stanford have averaged 26.5 points.

Arizona (+5.5) over BYU

The Wildcats have excelled at this position over the last 12 months, winning six of seven games as underdogs. Arizona’s Noah Fifita, who is fifth in the nation in passing yards and has lost one game by more than one touchdown in 14 games as quarterback, will have plenty of time to counter the defense with poor pass rush and an unproven secondary.

Noah Fifita Getty Images

Mississippi State (+33.5) over GEORGIA

The upcoming heavyweight fight (in Texas) doesn’t help Georgia. It doesn’t help that the head coach gets into a fight with his fans. “Honestly, this is probably the first time I’ve been disappointed with our fans,” Kirby Smart said after Georgia’s final home game. “I thought we were missing some really game-changing noise, passion and energy. … It must be difficult for other teams to play here, but it isn’t. It’s not the same as in the past.”

TENNESSEE (-15.5) over Florida

Shop cheaper on the Vols after their stunning loss in Arkansas. Tennessee, which is 9-2 after the loss under Josh Heupel, still boasts the second-ranked defense in the country and an offense that is averaging over 40 points per game. The 109th-ranked Gators defense will show no mercy after last year’s misfortunes.

LSU (+3.5) over Ole Miss

The Rebels haven’t won in Death Valley since 2008 and haven’t had a road win against a ranked SEC opponent since 2017. Ole Miss’s suspect pass defense faces its first real aerial threat in Garrett Nussmeier, who ranks fifth nationally in passing yards and completes nearly 70 percent of his attempts. Brian Kelly is 10-2 in his last 12 games after the bye.

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Iowa State (-3) over WEST VIRGINIA

This has the characteristics of a trap game, but sometimes square is the right choice. The undefeated Cyclones deserve more respect for taking the nation’s seventh-ranked defense to Morgantown, where the Mountaineers scored 12 points against the sixth-ranked Penn State unit.

Kansas State (-4) over COLORADO

How will the Wildcats stop Travis Hunter? Making him an observer on both sides. It will be difficult for a Heisman candidate to steal the show if the fifth-ranked Wildcats’ ground team can penetrate a defense that is allowing over 155 rushing yards per game. Deion Sanders has lost five straight games against ranked opponents.

BEST BETS: Ohio State, Washington State, Mississippi State.

SEASON: 45-44-1 (6-11-1).

RECORD 2013-23: 1272-1206-30.