Reassessing the Houston Astros prediction that almost came true

The Houston Astros’ 2024 season didn’t go as anyone expected, but one preseason prediction almost came true.

Before the year started, the ESPN baseball team compiled a list of predictions for each team as part of its season preview show. For the Astros, David Schoenfield predicted what Kyle Tucker’s season would look like.

“Only five position players have had at least 5.0 bWAR in each of the last three seasons, and Tucker is one of them.” Schoenfield said. “This year, he adds the best season of his career to date, posting a career-high 6.8 WAR, going 30/30 for the first time and improving on last year’s fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting.”

For the first few months of the year it seemed like it was going to be a lock.

Through the first 60 games of the season, Slogger accumulated a staggering 19 home runs and a solid 10 stolen bases. He already had 3.2 WAR. He was also projected to be a leading candidate in the MVP race at this time.

Everything changed when the 27-year-old burned the ball in the shin, causing problems for him and medical staff around the world.

Initially, the injury was called a shin injury. After months of absence, much longer than anyone expected, it turned out to be a minor fracture.

The fiasco forced him to miss another 79 games for the year and gave him only 18 games to catch up to what the prognosis had predicted for him.

He picked up a good fight where he left off before his injury. In the final 18 games of the year, he had a slash line of .365/.453/.587 and four home runs. Considering his leg injury, it’s not shocking that he only stole one more base at the end of the season.

All in all, the forecast could be considered successful because he still had another year of his career ahead of him. It’s a shame that no one will know what he could have done had he stayed healthy.

Based on his pace stats over 157 games (that’s how many games he played last season), he would theoretically hit about 46 home runs and steal 24 bases. That puts him far behind in runs scored and stolen bases, but those numbers were heavily impacted by a leg injury he suffered late in the game.

If Houston can give Tucker a full season of play at this level, MVP could be in the cards.