2024 Bank of America ROVAL 400

If you were under the impression that your driver was safe sitting just above the cut line after last week’s chaos at Talladega Superspeedway, you would be sorely mistaken.

This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series hosts its final road event of the year at the unique and sometimes controversial Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL track. From the very beginning, ROVAL has been a place of playoff madness, and this season promises to be no different.

The ROVAL setup has changed, which means most of the stats from previous races have to be thrown out here. When selecting lineups and filling out coupons this week, you’ll have to rely on the typical “who’s good on road courses” line of thought.

Before we get into all of this, let’s take a look at what happened last week. It certainly wasn’t pretty.

LAW FOR MONEY	LICK YOUR WOUNDS
Erik Jones (finished fifth, scored 67.6 points)	Ryan Blaney (finished 39th, scored -29.6 points)
Alex Bowman (finished 16th, scored 34.7 points)	Chase Elliott (finished 29th, scored -3.4 points)
Daniel Suarez (26th place, 22.8 points scored)	All three of my bets were unsuccessful. Literally all of them.

It’s definitely a tough week, and it doesn’t get much easier from here. However, this season I have better results on road tracks, so I have high hopes for it.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the rules:

Drivers will receive points based on their finishing position, position difference, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race earns 45 fantasy points, second place 42 points, third place 41 points, and so on, at least up to the top 10. 11th place earns 32 points, 21st receives 21 points, and 31st receives 10 points.

The number of places drivers lose or gain on the track is added or subtracted from their score. Then, if a driver leads a lap, they will receive 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.

DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Scoring Rules

Fantasy forecast

1. Shane van Gisbergen ($10,300)

SVG has had a truly successful Xfinity Series season, winning on multiple road courses. He could very well repeat his performance on the Chicago road track on the Cup side, and he even competed in a race at Talladega for a time last week.

I think the dynamics he has combined with the skills he has on this type of racetrack easily make him the favorite. The only thing likely to stop the Aussie phenom this weekend is potentially the equipment he’s on, despite the fact that Kaulig Racing is the defending winner of this race.

2. Chasing Elliott ($9,500)

Oh, I don’t have the best feeling about this.

I’ve had Elliott in the lineup a lot this season and sometimes it’s a big payoff and often it’s not. But I can’t ignore the achievements. He has two ROVAL wins to his name and if it weren’t for a speeding fine last season, he might have walked away with another one.

The accident at Talladega also weakened his momentum somewhat, although he had previously been the main candidate for victory. This guy is just too good on road courses not to include him here.

3. Chris Buescher ($9,100)

Buescher, one of the best road course drivers on the circuit not named Elliott, Kyle Larson or Tyler Reddick, is always a threat in places like this.

He returns to this style of racing track after a thrilling win over SVG at Watkins Glen International, so he’s ready for it.

The Buescher is an easy but high-end addition at this price in three slots.

4. Michael McDowell ($8,700)

Here’s another driver who never got the recognition he deserved for his road course skills. He led several laps at The Glen and, of course, scored a memorable victory at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway a few seasons ago.

What really motivates me with this choice is his qualifying speed. McDowell has a series-leading six pole positions this year. In a place that’s hard to pass like ROVAL, I like the guy who starts first.

McDowell needs to make his mark on his swan song season with Front Row Motorsports, and this is his best chance to do it.

5. Brad Keselowski ($6,900)

Okay, stick with me.

This selection is in no way based on his second-place finish last weekend, but that certainly gives him some credit. No, my motivation is based on how much he has improved on road courses this season.

He was running very well at The Glen before a serious accident which left William Byron’s right front tire flat. He also previously had decent days on the Chicago street circuit and at Sonoma Raceway.

I think Keselowski learned something from his teammate, and that will translate into a very good day for number 6.

6. Kaz Grala ($5,900)

Grala is the winner of the “I Don’t Have Much Money Left” award.

He has shown some flashes of greatness on road courses throughout his Xfinity Series career, so I think that justifies this selection. Either way, this is based on low expectations.

He’ll probably start poorly, and if he finishes poorly, you won’t lose too many points. It is a certainty that both sides win.

Prop and lock bets

1. Carson Hocevar in the top 5 (+1300): This is definitely my bet of the week. Hocevar doesn’t seem like the right fit for the job here, but his bottom five was at The Glen a few weeks ago. The odds are decent and the reward for taking the chance can be huge.
2. Martin Truex Jr. to win (+2800): Truex’s Cup Series career is coming to an end and his situation has been terrible since the summer. However, it would be good if this last victory was won here. I saw a repeat of the classic finish between him and Jimmie Johnson in 2018 and I think it would be cool to see.
3. Alex Bowman in the top three (+700): Bowman’s wild start to the playoffs came to a screeching halt last weekend at Talladega. However, I look at that +700 and remember that he has finished in the top five in two of his four road course events so far this season, including the victory in Chicago. I’m far from saying this is a safe bet, but it’s one of the better ones I’ve picked up recently.