Picks for Bengals vs. Jaguars, Falcons vs. Panthers

On By Yukito

We’re into Week 6 of the NFL season, and Sunday’s schedule is packed with quality player bets.

Last week I picked 2-1, giving me a 10-2 record on the season. Overall, I have 42-28 player props this year, which is +15.99 units of profit.

All my picks are tracked on the Action Network app at Wayne_Bets.

Top picks: Week 6 NFL player props

Rome Odunze’s longest reception at 19.5 yards (-110, FanDuel)

Jaguars vs. Bears, 9:30 a.m. ET (London)

We’re on the brink of making a significant move for Odunze, the Bears’ prized rookie winger, and I believe this week could provide a prime opportunity.

The Jaguars are dead last in passing DVOA and I expect a solid showing from Caleb Williams and the Bears offense overseas.

Odunze has an average target depth of 15.3 yards, which ranks fourth out of 64 wide receivers with 20-plus targets. This fits perfectly with the fact that Williams continues to improve as a deep passer; The rookie quarterback completed 3 of 4 deep passes last week after struggling with those throws throughout the first month of the season.

The Jaguars rank last in DVOA in deep passing yards and have allowed multiple receivers to receive receptions of at least 20 yards in every game this season.


Everything indicates that this week there will be a breakthrough match against Rome Odunze.
Everything indicates that this week there will be a breakthrough match against Rome Odunze. Getty Images

David Montgomery Over 60 rushing yards and a touchdown anytime (+205, Caesars)

Lions vs. Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET

With the bye, the Lions have a golden opportunity to build on their streak against the Cowboys, who have the worst run defense in the NFL according to the EPA.

Detroit has the league’s best offensive line in adjusted line yards, and the Cowboys rank 31st in that metric and 30th in run-stop win rate.

Montgomery’s rushing attempt line is valued at 14.5 for this game, meaning he’ll have plenty of volume to hit the 60-yard dash. He has over 60 rushing yards in 10 of 12 games as a Lion when Jahmyr Gibbs is active, and Montgomery has at least 14 rushing attempts.

Montgomery has also scored a try in 17 of 21 games since joining the Lions, so adding a touchdown prop to get the +205 odds is a no-brainer.


David Montgomery should see plenty of opportunities against the Cowboys.
David Montgomery should see plenty of opportunities against the Cowboys. Getty Images

Diontae Johnson over 59.5 yards (-115, DraftKings)

Falcons vs. Panthers, 4:25 p.m. ET

After a quiet performance last week in which he had just three catches for 23 yards against the Bears’ elite pass defense, Johnson has a favorable matchup against Atlanta, giving us a huge opportunity to make a low buy.

The Falcons have allowed seven wingers to cover that distance in just five games this season.

Since Andy Dalton took over as the starter, Johnson has ranked among the top 12 NFL quarterbacks in target share. He should see plenty of scoring against an Atlanta pass defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA and 28th in pass win rate and rushing.

Are you betting on the NFL?

Carolina is a 6.5-point underdog at home in this game, so in the final game scenario, expect plenty of opportunities for Johnson in the air.

(Please note that lines change throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help with whether the numbers are still playable, DM me at @wayne_sports_.)

Why you should trust the New York Post

Jacob Wayne breaks down college football and the NFL for the New York Post. In both disciplines, it achieved an increase of 84.5 units with an ROI of 6.27%.