What the polls say three weeks before the election

On October 14, 2024By Yukito

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct the number of national polls that show the candidate leading. We regret the error.

With three weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris leads in almost every reputable national poll, including six of the last nine national polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.

That said, national polls obscure the true state of the race, which appears to be a statistical tie, perhaps even leaning toward Trump.

Indeed, the Cook Political Report poll shows Harris leading in Michigan (+3), Wisconsin (+2), Arizona (+2), Nevada (+1) and Pennsylvania (+1), with North Carolina tied and Trump in Georgia by 2 points ahead.

Yet RealClearPolling’s aggregate swing state polls say just the opposite. Here, Trump leads in six of the seven swing states, and Harris leads in Wisconsin.

Crucially, the one constant in both Cook’s poll and the aggregate polls is that in no state does either candidate have an advantage larger than the margin of error, further emphasizing the tightness of the race.

Aside from the fact that Trump’s support is almost certainly underestimated in the polls, there are quantitative reasons why – especially in swing states – Trump is probably stronger than he appears.

In other words, polling below the key numbers suggests that momentum appears to be shifting toward Trump.

Political betting markets, which can react to events faster than polls, give Trump an average of 54% chance of winning, while Harris currently has a 45%.

Moreover, as Election Day approaches, voters tend to choose the candidate they believe will best handle the issues that matter to them. According to a Reuters poll, more than 4 in 10 (42 percent) of registered DF voters said the economy (26 percent) and immigration (16 percent) were the most important issues facing the country today.

Similarly, for swing states, the economy (28 percent) and immigration (21 percent) were the top two issues for voters, according to a Wall Street Journal swing state poll.

It just so happens that Trump is strongest against Harris on these two issues, especially among swing state voters.

Swing state voters believe that Trump – not Harris – is the best at handling immigration (52 to 36 percent), inflation (50 to 39 percent) and the economy (50 to 40 percent). – reports the Wall Street Journal.

Trump has made these issues central to his campaign and will certainly do so in the final weeks of the campaign, likely to his own advantage.

In the same vein, the polls highlight the problems Democrats face in the absence of a communications strategy outlining Harris’ plans to address issues voters consistently consider important.

When asked whether they think Trump and Harris have “clearly explained their policies and plans” on various issues, most voters say Trump has clearly explained his plans on illegal immigration (69 percent) and strengthening the economy (51 percent), according to Pew Research.

On the other hand, vast majorities of voters say Harris has not clearly explained her plans to address illegal immigration (69 percent), foreign policy (62 percent) or strengthen the economy (56 percent).

It’s just that voters know – and tend to support – Trump’s approach to these key issues, while most don’t even know what Harris’s position is. As the polls below show, this is already making it harder for Harris to win in several critical states.

To this end, there are also clear shifts between key demographic groups that highlight changing dynamics, even if it’s not obvious in the numbers.

Among Latino voters – a critical voting bloc for Democrats – a majority (52 percent) supports Trump, compared with Harris’ 44 percent, according to the Quinnipiac poll. If confirmed, it would be a historic shift from 2020, when Biden won about two-thirds (65 percent) of the Latino vote, according to CNN exit polls.

If that happens, Harris will be at a significant disadvantage in Arizona and Nevada.

Moreover, Harris underperforms Biden among union households in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two critical states. Biden won that group by 25 points four years ago, but the Hill/Emerson poll found Harris leading Trump by just 10 points.

Pennsylvania voters in union households, which Trump won by 2 points in 2020, currently support the former president 53% to 43%, which is not insignificant.

Harris also fares worse than Biden compared to independent candidates, especially in the blue wall states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

In 2020, Biden won Michigan Independents by 6 points, but that group currently supports Trump by 10 points (52% to 42%). And in Wisconsin, Harris’s 3-point lead over independent candidates is much smaller than Biden’s 12-point lead.

For her part, Harris is outperforming Biden among college-educated white voters and white women.

The biggest shift in Harris’ favor is white college-educated voters, 60 percent of whom support Harris, according to a New York Times-Siena poll, a 9-point improvement over Biden’s 2020 numbers.

Harris also attracted white women – who backed Trump 55 to 44 percent in 2020. – because a majority (52%) currently supports it, according to the aforementioned Quinnipiac poll.

But Trump’s significant lead on key issues, especially with swing state voters, may prove most influential.

Ultimately, three weeks before the election, the polls reflect one fundamental issue: This race will be extremely close.

At the same time, they make clear that in the final days of the campaign, Trump is leading where it counts: on issues that determine who voters support.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and founding partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China are rising, and America is retreating.”

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