Half the country will vote for Trump. What is its charm?

On October 17, 2024By Yukito

To me, Donald Trump is like pornography – he has no social redeeming value.

He is a narcissistic, misogynistic, bigoted, autocratic tyrant who is a congenital liar and dangerously out of touch with reality.

However, it seems that almost half the country is ready to vote for him.

Democrats certainly don’t have to like Trump, but we have a much better understanding of why so many people do, rather than simply calling his supporters “deplorables” like their candidate.

After the 2016 election, I was asked to write a chapter in the book on his initial electoral appeal, which I argued arose from the coming together of three strands of conservatism, each based on aversion – aversion to government, aversion to change, and aversion to difference.

Condemning Democrats as the party of Big Government has been a standard Republican move for decades. Today, just over half the country expresses distaste for a government they consider too big, and almost all support Trump. The large minority that looks favorably on a more active government overwhelmingly resides in the Kamala Harris camp.

The reluctance to change results from the respect of classical conservatism for tradition. As Edmund Burke wrote: “When ancient opinions and rules of life are thrown away, the loss cannot be estimated. From this point on, we no longer have a compass to guide us, nor can we know exactly which port to go to.

Trump has made himself an enemy of the changes that have taken place in this country since the 1950s. Whether it’s abortion rights, greater diversity, or the decline of religion, Trump has positioned himself as a guardian of “tradition” and an opponent of change.

Trump is calling for a return to something older, to ancient opinions and rules of life that the Democrats have taken away. He promises to rebuild an America that may never have been, but his supporters believed.

A clear indication of the majority’s disdain for the country’s cultural changes comes from responses to a survey question asking voters to rate changes in “American culture and way of life” since the 1950s.

As in 2016, more than half now say the situation has worsened since the 1950s.

Resentment against difference seemed dormant for several years until Trump reignited these passions by giving them a central role in his campaigns.

Establishment Republicans have urged the party to embrace the diversity of America and its immigrant communities. Instead, Trump attacked them, fanning the flames of intergroup hostility — and found an enthusiastic audience.

Unfortunately, making these feelings come true is not that difficult.

Experiments conducted at Yale and the University of California, Santa Barbara have shown that they can increase political conservatism, racial prejudice, antipathy to immigrants, and support for Trump simply by reminding them that the United States will become a majority-minority country by 2042.

But Trump’s appeal goes beyond ideology.

Those who are anti-government tend to favor the private sector. Who better to run a government like a business than a billionaire businessman? Despite unfairly exaggerating his success compared to some 350 million other Americans, Trump did quite well financially, although he often made sure others were held accountable for his failures.

Moreover, voters seem to remember Trump’s successful pre-pandemic economy. Nearly two-thirds tell pollsters that Trump’s economy is good. As President Obama reminds us, this was his economy, not Trump’s. But Trump benefits from having a seat on the Oval at the time.

Trump’s appeal was sealed by his authenticity – I wouldn’t associate a single word with the former president.

But by voicing the concerns of his voters, saying aloud what they had only said in private and being willing to endure establishment condemnation because of it, Trump proved to his supporters that he really meant it – that he was genuine.

Despite his appeals, Trump has plenty of weaknesses and can be defeated. But no one should underestimate the challenge or the sources of its support.

Mark Mellman is a pollster and president of The Mellman Group, a political consulting firm. He is also president of the Democratic Majority in Israel.

For the latest news, weather, sports and streaming videos, head to The Hill.